PTA morning review of the hottest Jinsui futures 1

2022-09-20
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Golden spike Futures: PTA morning comment 1021

Fundamentals: PTA spot market mentality also weakened slightly, prices slightly fell, and individual shipment intentions increased slightly. The intention of internal negotiation is to reach the level of yuan/ton. In terms of external market, the market's intention to ship fell slightly to US dollars/ton, and some buyers regretted it at the beginning of their intention to use it. Why is this to US dollars/ton. PTA production cost is only about 6100 yuan/ton, and the production profit is huge. Therefore, since the beginning of August, the domestic PTA plant operating rate has been higher than 80%. The positive cash flow of PTA production and idle PTA capacity will limit the possible rebound space of PTA in the future. At the same time, the production profit space of Pt, the two programmatic documents issued by the State Council and the "de capacity" of coal, has also led to the lag of the impact of oil price fluctuations on PTA prices. According to the China National fiber PTA index, the current production of polyester staple fiber with 2.14 reserved data interface is still in the state of zero profit, compared with the production profit of 1000 yuan/ton produced by PTA, which is obviously low. If the textile demand in the later stage cannot continue the recent rebound momentum, the cost transfer to Jinan gold testing machine, the way to use the reducer is blocked, and the polyester product production is bound to squeeze the high profits of PTA upstream

technical aspect: PTA showed a trend of rising and falling yesterday, with the highest futures price rising to 7448. The futures price fluctuated around the 60 day line. The market trading was active, and the trading volume shrank. The cost of the spot market restricted the rebound space, and the aftermarket price will maintain a volatile pattern

operation suggestions: high volatility, operation is not recommended to continue to catch up, mainly in the short-term within the day

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