PTA of the hottest LUZHENG futures continued to fa

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LUZHENG Futures: PTA continues to fall sharply to keep short thinking

I. market description

PTA fell sharply this week. Ta805 opened at 8056 yuan/ton and closed at 7820 yuan/ton, down 218 points from last week. The trading volume decreased significantly, 4716 hands less than last week, and the position was 61914 hands, 7304 hands less than last week

II. Analysis of market causes

nymex crude oil contract in May opened at 110.08 on Friday and closed at 110.14, up $0.03, or 0.03%

pta spot market continued to show a downward trend. In the internal market, the seller's offer price fell to yuan/ton today, the counter-offer price was 7850 yuan/ton or less, and the mainstream negotiation price was about yuan/ton; In the outer market, the seller offers us $per ton for shipment and US $990 per ton for bonded shipment. The mainstream negotiation price is US $per ton. At present, the spot price of internal and external disks is upside down as much as 600 yuan/ton. In terms of trading, due to the relatively sufficient stock of polyester factories, the PTA internal and external market transactions 1 7 End the experiment or conduct the next round of experiment

from the current market, due to the sufficient stock of terminal polyester factories and the withdrawal of high-end procurement, the profit taking mentality of merchants is concentrated, and the progress of PTA market is hindered. At present, foreign trade orders in the end market have shrunk seriously in April, and export enterprises are mainly transforming domestic demand. The sustained strengthening of PTA depends solely on the support of energy and PX. At present, it feels that the driving force is limited. Although crude oil and PX still have a strong driving force for the trend of PTA, the price and volume trend of downstream polyester market is also a key factor. The speculative atmosphere of PTA has declined significantly this week. This year, the central bank once again stressed the need to unswervingly implement the tight monetary policy orientation, which has exacerbated the financial tension in the polyester industry chain, and will lead to the difficulty of effectively reducing China's PTA financing imports in 2008. Although April is the peak season of traditional clothing consumption, driven by domestic demand, the possibility of later warming still exists, but on the whole, the downstream demand is still weak in the short term, and PTA still needs time to sort out

meg market, the domestic market price continues to decline today, Zhangjiagang market small single quotation 9200 yuan/ton, negotiation 9150 yuan/ton, large and medium-sized single negotiation yuan/ton. The quotation for canning out in South China is yuan/ton, and the negotiation is also declining, with some transactions reaching 9900 yuan/ton. In the external market, the offer of buyers in the Asian market was firm at $1100/ton CFR China l/c90 days, and the buyer offered $1080. It is reported that Meg cargo at Ningbo port today was traded at $1070/ton CFR China l/c90 days, but it was not confirmed

in terms of factories, the ex factory price of Maoming Petrochemical Ethylene glycol is 9800 yuan/ton today. The ex factory price of ethylene glycol of Fushun Petrochemical is 9870 yuan/ton, the price of ethylene glycol exported to North China is 9350 yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene glycol exported to East China market is 8770 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of ethylene glycol of Jilin Petrochemical is 9720 yuan/ton, the price of outward shipment to North China is 9350 yuan/ton, the price of outward shipment to East China market is 8770 yuan/ton, and the price of outward shipment to East China market is 8970 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of Beijing Dongfang ethylene glycol is 10200 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of Shanghai Petrochemical Ethylene glycol is 9700 yuan/ton. Yanshan Petrochemical Ethylene Glycol spot ex factory price was 10400 yuan/ton, both flat

bad aspects: (1) the resumption of production of SABIC devices has consolidated the supply side of China's import market, the contract goods of some factories have returned to normal, and the demand for shipping goods and the RMB market has decreased. (2) The appreciation of RMB will have a certain impact on exports, especially the price competition of labor-intensive products, of which textiles are one (3) Last week, the external market fell sharply, and the internal market did not follow the decline in time. There were signs of covering the decline at the beginning of this week. (4) According to the latest news of SABIC device, the device with problems last year has basically returned to normal. It is learned from the downstream polyester plant that the contract goods of SABIC in the later stage will be shipped ahead of schedule until they fully return to normal. The amount of ethylene glycol increased after the resumption of production of SABIC unit is more or less than the loss of a 400000 T/a yanpet1 ethylene glycol unit overhauled in Yanbu industrial zone and a 500000 T/a Sharq 1 unit scheduled to be overhauled in June to supply Chinese Mainland. This does not rule out the possibility that the import volume of ethylene glycol in May will rise significantly compared with the previous period, leading market participants to be pessimistic about the future market

III. trading suggestions

from a comprehensive perspective, the outer market has fallen, and the inner market has made up for the decline. The large single price of ethylene glycol has moved closer to 9000 yuan/ton. Traders have different views on the later trend. Some say that the port supply is sufficient, and the proportion of financiers holding goods is high, which is still possible to fall. A few traders say that the base level of crude oil remains at $100/barrel, and ethylene glycol is close to the rational price, so there is limited room for decline, mainly shock consolidation. It is suggested that the short-term thinking, short-term operation within the day, and pay attention to the 8000 support point

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